Stafford tax vs assessment

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Method & assumptions

Independent research compilation — not an official Stafford Township publication. Figures are estimates for review.

What the two color modes mean

• Tax bill % — change in estimated total tax: (2026 net ÷ 100 × 1.412) / (2025 net ÷ 100 × 2.623) − 1. Budgets rose ~13% townwide, so many parcels look “up.”
• Vs typical assess. — not raw “everyone went up ~2×.” Each parcel is compared to the median growth of the active layer (Homes or Business) computed from this dataset: (my 2026÷2025) / median(peer 2026÷2025) − 1. Near 0% means about typical; hot colors mean revalued harder than peers (e.g. some waterfront).

Anchor (equalizer) for assessment colors

• Built from our matched parcels with both a 2025 and 2026 net assessment — not taken from the township’s published average as an input.
• Homes median growth: × (n=; value-weighted sum ratio ×).
• Business median growth: × (n=; value-weighted sum ratio ×).
• Median = each parcel counts once (typical property). Sum ratio = total new assessed $ ÷ total old assessed $ (large parcels weigh more; shown for transparency).
• When computing the median only, ratios outside 0.5×–5.0× are excluded so rebuilds / tear-downs / odd records don’t set “typical.” Those parcels still appear on the map. Excluded from Homes anchor: ; Business: .

Click-breakdown dollars (“if no reassessment”)

• budgets-only bill ≈ 2025 tax × (134.17M ÷ 118.74M) (~+13% townwide levy at published rates).
• “Assessment / reassessment” dollars on the popup = actual 2026 tax minus that budgets-only bill (above/below same share of bigger town budgets). That is not the same as the map’s vs-median assessment colors, though both speak to distribution.
• Budget piece split across schools / county / municipal uses modeled 2026 county and regional school inputs until Ocean County posts final component rates.

Rates & data

• General rates: 2025 $2.623, 2026 $1.412 per $100 (Stafford Tax Collector).
• Assessments: Ocean County Tax List (2025 history net, current 2026 net).
• Map join: NJOGIS / ArcGIS parcel polygons for Stafford (mun 1531).
• Residential class 2; business 4A/4B/4C. Exempt class 15 excluded from taxable heat map.

Known limits

• New construction, demolitions, and remapped lots can produce unusual growth ratios.
• Parcel tax estimates use published general rates; not a substitute for an official tax bill.
• County / Southern Regional 2026 line items are modeled/estimated where the official Stafford component sheet is not yet posted.